ABSTRACT
The successes of YOPP from the presentations and keynote presentations included * a better understanding of the impact of key polar measurements (radiosondes and space-based instruments such as microwave radiometers), and recent advancements in the current NWP observing system, achieved through coordinated OSEs in both polar regions (e.g., Sandu et al. 2021);* enhanced understanding of the linkages between Arctic and midlatitude weather (e.g., Day et al. 2019);* advancements in the atmosphere–ocean–sea ice and atmosphere–land–cryosphere coupling in NWP, and in assessing and recognizing the added value of coupling in Earth system models (e.g., Bauer et al. 2016);* deployment of tailored polar observation campaigns to address yet-unresolved polar processes (e.g., Renfrew et al. 2019);* progress in verification and forecasting techniques for sea ice, including a novel headline score (e.g., Goessling and Jung 2018);* advances in process understanding and process-based evaluation with the establishment of the YOPPsiteMIP framework and tools (Svensson 2020);* better understanding of emerging societal and stakeholder needs in the Arctic and Antarctic (e.g., Dawson et al. 2017);and * innovative transdisciplinary methodologies for coproducing salient information services for various user groups (Jeuring and Lamers 2021). The YOPP Final Summit identified a number of areas worthy of prioritized research in the area of environmental prediction and services for the polar regions: * coupled atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean models with an emphasis on advanced parameterizations and enhanced resolution at which critical phenomena start to be resolved (e.g., ocean eddies);* improved definition and representation of stable boundary layer processes, including mixed-phase clouds and aerosols;incorporation of wave–ice–ocean interactions;* radiance assimilation over sea ice, land ice, and ice sheets;understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes from a prediction perspective;* exploring the limits of predictability of the atmosphere–cryosphere–ocean system;* an examination of the observational representativeness over land, sea ice, and ocean;better representation of the hydrological cycle;and * transdisciplinary work with the social science community around the use of forecasting services and operational decision-making to name but a few. The presentations and discussions at the YOPP Final Summit identified the major legacy elements of YOPP: the YOPPsiteMIP approach to enable easy comparison of collocated multivariate model and observational outputs with the aim of enhancing process understanding, the development of an international and multi-institutional community across many disciplines investigating aspects of polar prediction and services, the YOPP Data Portal3 (https://yopp.met.no/), and the education and training delivered to early-career polar researchers. Next steps Logistical issues, the COVID-19 pandemic, but also new scientific questions (e.g., the value of targeted observations in the Southern Hemisphere), as well as technical issues emerging toward the end of the YOPP Consolidation Phase, resulted in the decision to continue the following three YOPP activities to the end of 2023: (i) YOPP Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH);(ii) Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (MIIP);of which YOPPSiteMIP is a critical element;and (iii) the Societal, Economics and Research Applications (PPP-SERA) Task Team.
ABSTRACT
The rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT) and growing participation of students in work life has already in several decades moved ICT education into 'clouds', using sources of knowledge on Internet from all around the world. The COVID pandemic has increased this process, forcing universities to restrict classroom teaching and rapidly increased student's self-study.At the same time, increase of amounts of data to be processed is constantly introducing new high-level software technologies, layers and layers of packages and libraries, deeper and more complex. This has created a new 'top-down' programming style: a new project is started with importing mass of libraries which have been used in earlier projects and only then is considered how to use them in order to solve the programming task. The self-studying ICT students see only tips of modern software icebergs and it is difficult for them to understand their working without face-to-face classroom communication where details of the 'depths' are explained. © 2022 Croatian Society MIPRO.
ABSTRACT
We analyze the evolution of the COVID19 infections in the first months of the pandemics and show that the basic compartmental SIR model cannot explain the data, some characteristic time series being by more than an order of magnitude different from the fit function over significant parts of the documented time interval. To correct this large discrepancy, we amend the SIR model by assuming that there is a relatively large population that is infected but was not tested and confirmed. This assumption qualitatively changes the fitting possibilities of the model and, despite its simplicity, in most cases the time series can be well reproduced. The observed dynamic is only due to the transitions between two infected compartments, which are the unconfirmed infected and the confirmed infected, and the rate of closing the cases (by recovery or death) in the confirmed infected compartment. We also discuss some relevant extensions of this model, to improve the interpretation and the fitting of the data. These findings qualitatively and quantitatively evidences the “iceberg phenomenon” in epistemology. © 2021 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved.